{"id":10917,"date":"2023-07-18T17:18:21","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T20:18:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/?p=10917"},"modified":"2023-07-31T11:00:56","modified_gmt":"2023-07-31T14:00:56","slug":"one-forensic-observation-does-not-a-cause-make","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/2023\/07\/18\/one-forensic-observation-does-not-a-cause-make\/","title":{"rendered":"One forensic observation does not a cause make"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The word <em>empirical<\/em> keeps coming back to me after posting a recent blog about the importance of peer review in forensic work. (Refs 1, 2 and 3) This because many forensic engineering investigations of failures and accidents in the built and natural environments are <em>empirical <\/em>in nature.  Meaning, they are based on <em>observation <\/em>or <em>experience<\/em> not laboratory and field testing.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Observational Method &#8211; or <em>Empirical<\/em> Method, if you like &#8211; is widely used and accepted in both the theoretical and applied sciences.  Check out Dr. Google:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Civil, geotechnical and environmental engineering.                                   The OM method is particularly valuable in geotech work because the engineering properties of the ground can change with every step.<\/li><li>Design and construction<\/li><li>Forensic investigation<\/li><li>Criminal investigation<\/li><li>Psychology<\/li><li>Child development<\/li><li>Anthropology<\/li><li>Marketing<\/li><li>Statistics<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>What needs to be understood is that, in general, <em><strong>one<\/strong> forensic observation is insufficient in determining cause<\/em>.  Cross checking is essential.  Several observations must be made and a number of these &#8211; the preponderance &#8211; must point to the probable cause of a failure or accident.  If this is not done, peer review will flush out the fault.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In general, the Observation Method, regardless the field of practice, like in the above list, involves: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Preparing a preliminary design or investigation based on what is known at the time. <\/span><\/strong> This could be of an engineering structure or the forensic investigation of the failure of one, a research study, treatment of a PTSD patient, etc. &#8211; anything where there are unknowns.<\/li><li><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Preparing a monitoring plan<\/span> <\/strong>to verify, for example, that the forensic investigation or research study is yielding expected data or findings.<\/li><li><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Preparing a contingency plan<\/span><\/strong> that is put into operation if the data or findings are not within defined limits.                                                              <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">For example<\/span><\/strong>, if the preliminary design is of an engineering structure, and different foundation soil conditions are found during excavation, a contingency plan might require deep piled foundations rather than shallow ones.                                                                                                              <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Or<\/span><\/strong>, the initial findings of a forensic investigation are incompatible with the initial hypothesis of the cause of a failure or accident, then the hypothesis is modified and additional investigation is done.  <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Getting back to <em>empirical<\/em>, I don&#8217;t remember the last time that I did a forensic investigation that was based on laboratory testing.  Field testing, yes, plus lots of <em>observation<\/em> and <em>experience<\/em>.  Testing like the re-enacting of accidents, testing the layout of a highway design, or field testing the properties of materials used in construction.  There&#8217;s one field test I do &#8211; 10 times in each of three (3) different directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Why is talk about observation and experience, and peer review, important? <\/span><\/strong> Because forensic engineering investigations based on the Observation Method &#8211; many are &#8211; are best served when a peer review is carried out on completion of the investigation.  Better a peer review than a rebuttal review if dispute resolution or insurance claims adjustment is not reached on the court house steps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><em>How are forest fires and earthquakes similar, and what can experts learn from them about the importance of peer review<\/em>?  Posted June 27, 2023<\/li><li><em>Update: A Bundle of Blogs: On the need for peer review in forensic engineering and expert services. <\/em>Posted April 28, 2021<\/li><li><em>A Bundle of Blogs: On the need for peer review in forensic engineering and expert services. <\/em>Posted November 29, 2019                                                  There are <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">seven (7) good reads<\/span><\/strong> <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">on peer review<\/span><\/strong> in this blog including the two (2) in the Update <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><em>(Posted by Eric E. Jorden, M.Sc., P.Eng. Consulting Professional Engineer, Forensic Engineer, Geotechnology Ltd., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, July 18, 2023.&nbsp;<strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">ejorden@eastlink.ca<\/span><\/strong>)&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The word empirical keeps coming back to me after posting a recent blog about the importance of peer review in forensic work. (Refs 1, 2 and 3) This because many forensic engineering investigations of failures and accidents in the built &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/2023\/07\/18\/one-forensic-observation-does-not-a-cause-make\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10917"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10917"}],"version-history":[{"count":27,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10978,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10917\/revisions\/10978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}