{"id":1337,"date":"2013-04-18T11:36:41","date_gmt":"2013-04-18T11:36:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/?p=1337"},"modified":"2013-04-18T11:36:41","modified_gmt":"2013-04-18T11:36:41","slug":"experts-on-the-wane","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/2013\/04\/18\/experts-on-the-wane\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts on the wane?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I don’t think so..!!\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Certainly not in the forensic engineering field where ‘small-data’ is the rule and where there will always be a need for\u00a0the subject-area\u00a0expert – a well experienced, knowledgeable\u00a0person in a particular field of study.<\/p>\n

Someone who can gather engineering data and facts, for example,\u00a0then bridge the gap between\u00a0these facts\u00a0and the\u00a0formulation of\u00a0an opinion on cause.\u00a0\u00a0Finally, someone who can help civil litigation lawyers and\u00a0the judge understand the technical cause of a failure or accident in the built environment (Ref. 1).<\/p>\n

But, exciting things are happening in the Big-Data world<\/span><\/p>\n

But, there does appear to be exciting things happening in the ‘big-data’ world as suggested in a recent\u00a0item in the Globe and Mail. (Ref. 2)\u00a0 The item – headed up ‘Experts on the wane?’, quotes the authors of a recent\u00a0book (Ref. 3) who\u00a0predict “Data-driven decisions are poised to augment or overrule human judgement”.\u00a0 The new big-data way will “…let the data speak.”<\/p>\n

(The book is a very good read – a study to some extent, with much insight on what can be learned from large amounts of data,\u00a0and also how we are being monitored with today’s technology.\u00a0 There is an extensive bibliography)<\/p>\n

No excitement\u00a0in the\u00a0Small-Data world<\/span><\/p>\n

That may be the case as far as\u00a0big-data\u00a0is concerned but there’s nothing new there\u00a0in the ‘old’, small-data world.\u00a0 Practitioners of forensic engineering investigation have been “letting the data speak” all along and following the evidence where it leads.<\/p>\n

Definition of big-data with a good\u00a0example<\/span><\/p>\n

Big-data\u00a0refers to\u00a0the ability of society to harness\u00a0huge\u00a0amounts of data in\u00a0novel ways with today’s computers, and\u00a0analyse the data\u00a0to\u00a0produce useful insights on people, or goods and services\u00a0of significant value.\u00a0(Ref. 3)<\/p>\n

For example, Amazon now regularly analyses tens of thousands of customers’ book purchases to predict what related topics any one us will be inclined to\u00a0purchase next, and then offer it to us.\u00a0 The experts who did this in\u00a0the past were all laid off.<\/p>\n

Engineers go outdoors and get dirty – fortunately for the justice system<\/span><\/p>\n

In spite of this ability of today’s technology, it will still be necessary for an engineer to go on site and get\u00a0his\u00a0hands dirty and mud on\u00a0his boots examining a foundation failure or measuring skid marks at\u00a0the scene of a traffic, or slip and fall\u00a0accident.\u00a0 And crawling over the debris of a collapsed structure.<\/p>\n

We engineers in North America\u00a0are known overseas for our interest and willingness to go on site and get data firsthand.\u00a0 And the justice system appreciates that hands-on approach.\u00a0 The big-data way won’t cut it in the investigation of a failure in the built environment.<\/p>\n

The justice system still wants to know the cause of a problem<\/span><\/p>\n

As well, gathering\u00a0large amounts of data and analysing the data with computers focuses on establishing correlations rather than causes.\u00a0 Identifying the what <\/em>of a problem rather than the why – <\/em>the cause<\/em> of a problem. (Ref. 3)\u00a0 That would never\u00a0do in forensic engineering where the cause of a problem must be determined before you can fix it, and\u00a0before\u00a0the justice system\u00a0can\u00a0determine damages.<\/p>\n

The old, small-data way solves problems in the built environment<\/span><\/p>\n

All the problems that I experience in my forensic engineering practice – requiring the gathering and analysis of small-data by an expert, or that I hear about from my colleagues in their practices, and see in the literature, are from the built environment.<\/p>\n

Problems and failures in the built environment to do\u00a0with the planning, design, construction, performance,\u00a0and maintenance of structures\u00a0like industrial, commercial, institutional,\u00a0and residential low- and high-rise buildings.\u00a0 Also civil engineering structures like bridges, roads, airport runways and taxiways, dams, drainage systems, earthworks, harbour works, and hydraulic works.<\/p>\n

And included is the plant and equipment in these structures\u00a0and the infra-structure.\u00a0 Also the traffic, industrial, and slip and fall accidents that occur in and around these structures.<\/p>\n

The big-data way can’t solve these problems because these problems\u00a0in the built environment are not characterized\u00a0by a gazillion amount of data.\u00a0 There are a lot of data sometimes but not that much.\u00a0 These problems\u00a0are characterized by\u00a0small amounts\u00a0of data appropriate to the small-data way of an expert – who then applies his judgement to\u00a0formulate an opinion as to\u00a0cause.<\/p>\n

Experts on the\u00a0wane?\u00a0 No, they’re not<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 There will always be a need for experts as long as there are failures and accidents in the built environment.<\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The Globe and Mail, Thursday April 11, 2013, page S8.\u00a0 A relevant item, an obituary of\u00a0a man, Martin B. Wilk, scientist, statistician, sage, who thought of statistics as a beautiful blend of science and art, bridging the gap between mathematical facts and human understanding.<\/li>\n
  2. The Globe and Mail, March 6, 2013, page L10.\u00a0 See ‘Experts on the wane?’<\/li>\n
  3. Mayer-Schonberger, Victor and Cukier, Kenneth, Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think, <\/em>Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, New York, 2013.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I don’t think so..!!\u00a0\u00a0 Certainly not in the forensic engineering field where ‘small-data’ is the rule and where there will always be a need for\u00a0the subject-area\u00a0expert – a well experienced, knowledgeable\u00a0person in a particular field of study. Someone who can … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[16,17],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1337"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1337"}],"version-history":[{"count":34,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1337\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1388,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1337\/revisions\/1388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ericjorden.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}