“The Uncertainty of the Expert”, caught my eye recently. It’s the title of a chapter in a book entitled “How Doctors Think”. (Ref. 1) It reminded me of the blogs I’ve posted on “The softness of science”. (Refs 2 and 3)
The penny dropped when I realized that medicine is also a soft, semi-empirical applied science. For example, soft like the geotechnical, environment and forensic engineering fields. Medicine is based on observation or experience plus laboratory and field testing – think field tests on your body lying on the operating room table.
It’s also susceptible to the same kind of errors arising from subjective conclusions drawn from observation. (Ref. 4) And, if truth be told, subjective conclusions drawn from hard science test results too.
Ego also gets in the way. What medical doc wants to admit standing in front of a patient in their office or over their body during an operation, scapel knife in hand, that they just don’t know? Hmmm?
Happens in soft engineering and also in soft medicine. Don’t believe me? Read the Introduction and also the first few pages of Chapter 6, “The Uncertainty of the Expert”.
A basic, sneaky error that sweeps across all the soft, semi-empirical sciences is confirmation bias. That is, paying more attention to data that supports the presumed conclusion/diagnosis and minimizing data that contradicts it. (Ref. 5)
Nor will you like learning that medical docs diagnose based on subjective, semi-empirical science, as well as a measure of ignorance at times. (Ref. 1)
This book is a good read. A must read for all of us: Lay folk, medical docs, forensic experts, lawyers and insurance claims managers.
I read it some time ago, cover to cover, and studied and underscored comments and passages of interest. I chanced to pick it up again a short time ago and skimmed through it – and that’s when the penny dropped on it’s relevance to expert forensic services.
Peer review will keep your uncertain expert out of trouble, like it does medical docs who get second opinions, sometimes.
References
- Jerome Groopman, M.D. How Doctors Think, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston 2007
- Is there “super soft” forensic engineering investigation, and if so, why is peer review important? Posted June 24, 2024
- “Soft” forensic engineering investigation and peer review. Posted May 28, 2024
- Dunnicliff, John and Deere, Don U, Editors, Judgement in Geotechnical Engineering, The Professional Legacy of Ralph B. Peck. John Wiley & Sons, New York 1984
- Is sneaky, implicit bias alive and well – in me? Posted September 8, 2025
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(Blog posted by Eric E. Jorden, M.Sc., P.Eng. Consulting Professional Engineer and Forensic Engineer, Geotechnology Ltd., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, March 31, 2026 ejorden@eastlink.ca)